Some thoughts on the California recall election

  • The official party line from the Democrats is vote NO on the recall, then stop. Sign the back and mail it in.
  • That’s the party line from the San Diego Democrats, at least. I suspect it came down from the state.
  • I may deviate from party line and vote for Angelyne in part two because mandatory bubble baths.
  • Because the recall election is a shitshow, we could end up with Newsom getting 49+% of the vote and Elder getting 18% and Elder getting sworn in as governor in October.
  • If you have any elective medical procedures on the to-do list for this year, get ’em done now. Because we could have a Republican governor in October, and a few weeks after that, hospitals will over capacity, canceling elective procedures, and lining up the refrigerated trucks on the street to hold the excess dead bodies.
  • You think that last bit is hyperbole? That’s what’s going on in Texas and Florida, where Republicans are anti-mask and vax mandates because ‘MURRICA.

Bad news for Newsom—and California

New Poll Suggests Low Democratic Turnout Could Doom Gov. Newsom

Chris Jennewein at the Times of San Diego:

A new poll of California voters released Tuesday suggests low Democratic turnout could doom Gov. Gavin Newsom and finds talk show host Larry Elder leads a divided Republican field.”

It’s not surprising that Newsom is in jeopardy. Most registered voters oppose the recall, but the way the election is structured, the pro-recall faction has a substantial advantage. It’s just a badly structured election.

I was surprised by Elder’s lead—I would have thought Faulconer had the edge—but I guess Elder’s big talk-radio platform works for him.

Democrats need to get out and vote and get their neighbors to do the same.

Republicans could win the California recall even though all their candidates are unpopular

Why Republicans want to pack the California recall ballot. By Carla Marinucci on Politico — “To drive turnout, recall backers are encouraging any and all GOP entrants to join the race.”

This is why it’s important to vote “NO” on the recall, and convince others to do the same. Even though the measure is unpopular, Republicans could win anyway.

Republicans are packing the recall ballot, figuring each candidate they add will bring a few supporters. No individual candidate has to top 50% of the vote, but if the total supporters of all candidates goes over the top, then the recall succeeds.

Newsom is popular, but the recall is structured so even a popular candidate, like Newsom, is at risk.

Republicans can’t win fair elections, nationally or in California. So they’re gaming the election system.

San Diego’s Kevin Faulconer is running a serious campaign for governor, without a bear.

Ben Christopher, CalMatters, on the Times of San Diego:

A Republican former mayor of San Diego, he governed that once Republican but now reliably blue coastal city as a pro-immigrant, climate-change-believing, bilingual urbanist. He touts endorsements from the traditional quarters of state GOP leadership.

And he really wants you to take the recall election seriously.

So far, Faulconer has tried to make waves in a way that almost seems quaint in 2021: by releasing policy proposals.

The logic of recall works for Faulconer. Faulconer is a moderate Republican in blue California, which handicaps him in a normal election. A normal election starts with a primary, where a Republican has to appeal to the MAGA base, and then pivot to the center. But the recall skips the primaries.

However, Faulconer’s candidacy depends on voters wanting to get rid of Newsom, who has proven popular. But right now Newsom is writing high on re-opening popularity, and his popularity may take a big hit when we get into a wildfire and blackout season.

Lots of “howevers” and “buts” in the previous two paragraphs. That’s just the nature of the recall.

The California recall election against Gov. Newsom could be as early as August

From this article: California Lawmakers Agree to Reimburse Recall Costs, by Matthew Renda on Voice of San Diego:

Democratic lawmakers in California vowed to reimburse local jurisdictions for the approximately $200 million in costs associated with the likely impending recall election of Governor Gavin Newsom.

Lawmakers also indicated the recall election could take place earlier than November, possibly as early as August.

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